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Abstract The effects of vertebrate seed predation on the regeneration of restored forests are not well understood because most past studies have focused on seed predation within the first few years after restoration and have measured seed removal without quantifying subsequent seedling establishment of seeds that avoid predation. Quantifying the establishment of seeds that escape predation in restored forests at later stages of regrowth is crucial for anticipating longer‐term recovery trajectories. Here, we evaluated the potential role of vertebrate seed predators in limiting recruitment of later‐successional tree species in nine forests actively restored ≥15 years prior and in four paired remnant forest fragments embedded in an agricultural landscape in southern Costa Rica. We conducted seed addition experiments with four tree species inside and outside vertebrate exclosures and used camera trapping to detect seed predators. To determine the fate of seeds that avoided predation, we also measured seedling establishment after 1 year, given that other mortality factors may compensate in the absence of vertebrate seed predation. We detected two species of birds and five species of granivorous mammals removing seeds. Seed tagging indicated that most removal resulted in predation. For three of the four tree species tested, vertebrate seed predation reduced seedling establishment. The magnitude of this effect depended on species' susceptibility to other causes of mortality during the seed‐to‐seedling transition. Our study demonstrates that vertebrate seed predators can substantially reduce later‐successional seedling recruitment in restored forests and should be considered alongside dispersal limitation and microsite conditions as factors slowing forest recovery. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.